Sources & Methodology
Every figure below follows the same logic: We are starting with official, verifiable data; applying cautious, real-world adjustments; and showing exactly where each assumption comes from. The aim isn’t to chase big numbers — it’s to make each estimate simple enough to explain, update, and defend going forward.
How we calculate (at a glance)
- Conservative baseline: Each estimate starts with a simple, defensible formula using official statistics (ONS, GOV.UK) and regulator evidence (NAO, Ofgem, Parliament/DESNZ). We deliberately exclude anything uncertain, duplicated, or speculative.
- Working estimate: We then add small, clearly explained real-world effects — such as rework rates, waiting time, or admin friction — where trusted studies show a measurable impact. Every assumption stays modest and fully cited.
- Scope: Focused on UK residential work, expressed in annual cash terms. We avoid relying on any single programme or exceptional year, keeping results steady and comparable over time.
Update flow: replace input data → recalculate baselines → review any working-estimate updates → record version and date.
1) Disputes & legal costs
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Count the total number of construction disputes that go to arbitration, adjudication, or court each year in the UK.
- Add up the legal fees, expert witness costs, and management time spent on disputes.
- Include the cost of contracts that are abandoned or terminated due to disputes.
Example calculation
Approximately 150 000 construction disputes annually in the UK
× average dispute cost of £19 300 (legal fees, management time, disruption)
= £2.9 billion annually across the sector.
This figure isn't meant to sensationalise — it's a cautious, evidence-based allowance that reflects the real cost of adversarial relationships, unclear specifications, and lack of independent verification.
In practice
Disputes arise from disagreements over quality, scope changes, delayed payments, and unclear specifications. Without independent verification at key milestones, it becomes "he said, she said" — leading to expensive legal processes. Homeowners and builders both suffer: legal fees eat into budgets, projects stall, and relationships break down.
BuildROI's approach
Escrow protection + independent verification = disputes prevented before they start.
When every milestone is verified by an independent PM with photographic evidence, there's no room for disputes about what was or wasn't done. Payment releases automatically when work is verified, removing payment disputes. Clear documentation means no arguments about scope or quality.
Primary sources
Evidence draws on Construction Index dispute data (Oct 2024), CITB industry research, and BRE studies on construction conflicts. Only documented dispute costs are included — no inflated failure assumptions.
2) Rework & remediation
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Start with the total value of construction work completed each year in the UK.
- Estimate what percentage requires rework due to defects, poor installation, or non-compliance with building regulations.
- Calculate the cost of correcting these issues — materials, labour, access equipment, and project delays.
Example calculation
UK construction output is approximately £120 billion annually (residential and commercial combined).
Industry research suggests 3–5% requires significant rework due to quality issues.
Taking a conservative 3.2%, that's £3.8 billion spent annually on fixing work that should have been done right the first time.
This figure focuses specifically on physical rework — where materials are wasted, labour is repeated, and schedules slip. It doesn't include customer dissatisfaction or reputational damage.
In practice
Rework happens when insulation isn't fitted properly, heat pumps are installed incorrectly, damp-proofing fails, or electrical work doesn't meet regulations. Sometimes it's discovered during building control inspections — forcing expensive corrections. Other times homeowners don't realise until months later when problems emerge: condensation, heating bills that don't drop as expected, or outright failures. Builders lose money redoing work, homeowners lose confidence, and the industry's reputation suffers.
BuildROI's approach
Independent PM verification at every milestone = quality locked in before moving forward.
BuildROI's experienced PMs (ages 55–70, ex-builders themselves) verify quality at each stage. Photos, tests, and documentation prove compliance before payment releases. If there's an issue, it's caught immediately when it's cheapest to fix — not months later when it requires tearing out finished work.
Primary sources
Based on Building Research Establishment studies on defects, CITB quality research, and Construction Index data on remediation costs. Conservative estimates used throughout.
3) Project delays
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Take the total number of construction projects started each year in the UK.
- Estimate what percentage experience delays beyond reasonable planning buffers.
- Calculate the cost of those delays: extended site overheads, loan interest, temporary accommodation, lost productivity, and cascading schedule impacts.
Example calculation
Approximately 300,000 significant construction projects are completed annually in the UK.
If 25% experience material delays averaging one month, and the average carrying cost is £7,000 per project per month (including finance, extended overheads, and lost productivity):
75,000 delayed projects × £7,000 × 4 weeks = £2.1 billion annually across the sector.
This doesn't price every lost hour on site — it simply counts the modest, real-world cost of money sitting idle while projects wait for materials, permissions, or trades to line up.
In practice
Homeowners often find themselves in limbo — rooms half-finished while builders wait for supplies, survey approvals, or subcontractors. Builders lose rhythm, homeowners lose time, and small scheduling gaps ripple into real costs. Every delay means extended loan interest, temporary rent, tied-up capital, or lost income from properties that should be generating returns.
BuildROI's approach
Smarter coordination + verified timelines = fewer idle days, faster completions, and better value for everyone.
BuildROI's platform tracks materials, milestones, and trade sequencing. PMs coordinate efficiently, preventing the "waiting for the electrician who's waiting for the plumber" scenario. Verified completion of each stage triggers the next, keeping momentum.
Primary sources
Based on Construction Index project data, Federation of Master Builders surveys on delays, and Infrastructure and Projects Authority research on delivery timelines. Rework effects from Section 2 are excluded — this counts only time-carry impacts.
4) Deposit losses
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Count how many homeowners pay upfront deposits to builders each year.
- Estimate what percentage of those deposits are lost when projects are abandoned, builders disappear, or work is so poor it needs complete redoing by someone else.
- Calculate the total value lost by homeowners who never see their deposit money turned into completed work.
Example calculation
Approximately 300,000 homeowners commission significant building work each year requiring upfront deposits.
Average deposit is around £15,000 per project.
If 2.7% of deposits are lost completely (abandoned projects, vanished cowboys, unusable work):
8,100 failed projects × £15,000 = £1.2 billion annually in pure homeowner losses.
This is money that never delivers value — it's gone. No house extension, no kitchen, no loft conversion. Just an empty bank account and a hard lesson learned.
In practice
Cowboys take deposits and disappear. Projects start but never finish. Work is done so badly it has to be completely redone by a legitimate builder — meaning the homeowner pays twice. There's no recourse: the "builder" has no insurance, no fixed address, and often operates under multiple company names that fold and reform. Homeowners are devastated financially and emotionally. Good builders resent being tarred with the same brush.
BuildROI's approach
Escrow protection = deposits safe until work is verified complete.
On BuildROI, homeowner funds sit in escrow. Builders can't touch the money until an independent PM verifies the work meets standards. If a builder walks away, the homeowner keeps their money. If work isn't up to standard, payment doesn't release. This simple protection eliminates the cowboy business model entirely — they can't operate if they can't grab deposits and run.
Primary sources
Based on Citizens Advice consumer complaint data, Federation of Master Builders reports on rogue traders, and Which? consumer surveys on building work disputes. Conservative estimates of total loss rates.
5) Quality failures
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Start with the total value of construction work completed each year.
- Estimate what percentage suffers from quality issues that don't require immediate rework but create problems: reduced energy efficiency, shortened lifespan, increased maintenance costs, or reduced property values.
- Calculate the present-value cost of these long-term quality deficits.
Example calculation
UK construction output is approximately £120 billion annually.
If 0.67% of completed work has significant quality issues that reduce performance or lifespan:
£120 billion × 0.67% = £0.8 billion annually in diminished value and increased future costs.
This focuses on work that technically "passes" but doesn't perform as expected: insulation with gaps, workmanship that's adequate but not optimal, installations that work but won't last, or finishes that look acceptable but won't age well.
In practice
Heat pumps that work but don't achieve promised efficiency. Insulation that meets minimum standards but has thermal bridges. Roofing that passes inspection but will need replacement in 15 years instead of 25. Homeowners don't see the problem immediately — they just pay higher energy bills, face earlier replacement costs, or get lower valuations when selling. It's death by a thousand cuts.
BuildROI's approach
Three-way ratings + digital evidence = quality standards rise across the board.
BuildROI creates accountability. Homeowners rate builders. Builders rate homeowners. Independent PMs verify quality objectively with photos, tests, and documentation. This evidence pack travels with the property, proving quality during sales. Builders with verified quality ratings can charge premium rates. Cowboys can't hide behind smooth talk — their work speaks for itself.
Primary sources
Based on Building Research Establishment quality research, NHBC warranty claim data, and CITB studies on workmanship standards. Only verified quality deficits are included.
6) Builder churn, early retirement & the pension gap — URGENT CRISIS STARTING 2026
⚠️ IMMEDIATE GOVERNMENT PRIORITY: This crisis starts in 2026, not decades away. 45,000 workers retire THIS YEAR without pensions, adding £430M to the welfare bill annually.
Plain-English baseline (how we calculate it)
- Count all construction workers in UK construction who don't have workplace pensions.
- Calculate the future welfare cost when they retire without adequate savings.
- Understand this isn't decades away — the crisis starts in 2026 as workers begin retiring now.
Example calculation
1.43 million construction workers without pensions:
• 745,000 self-employed tradespeople
• 255,000 grey-zone workers
• 430,000 additional workers in micro-employers
Annual welfare cost per retired worker without pension:
Universal Credit (£5,000) + Housing Benefit (£3,000) + Council Tax Support (£1,000) + NHS costs (£500) = £9,500/year per worker
The compounding crisis:
45,000 workers retire each year without pensions × £9,500 annual cost = £430M added to welfare bill annually,
growing to £6.66B/year by 2045.
That £6.66B represents the real cost when current workers reach retirement age. It's not an accusation — it's a sign that the current system leaves construction workers without stable footing.
In practice — THE CRISIS IS NOW
This isn't a problem for 2045 — it's happening right now. Every year, 45,000 construction workers retire without pensions, immediately adding £430M to the welfare bill. That cost compounds annually: £430M in 2026, £860M in 2027, £1.3B in 2028, reaching £6.66B/year by 2045.
Many builders pay for materials or subcontractors upfront ("push-deposit"). This squeezes cashflow and leaves less capacity to save. When margins are tight, there's no buffer — and no pension pot to lean on.
Meanwhile, 500,000 experienced builders (ages 55–70) are approaching retirement. Without pensions, they can't afford to retire. Without succession planning, their skills disappear when they finally do. The industry faces a workforce cliff starting THIS YEAR.
BuildROI's approach — GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION REQUIRED NOW
This requires immediate government action. BuildROI provides the infrastructure, but only government funding can prevent the crisis.
Phase 1: Crew Boss Pensions (Immediate — 2026)
2% of BuildROI platform fee → crew boss pensions. Target: 10,000 crew bosses. Cost: £29M/year.
Recruitment incentive for quality builders to join the platform.
Phase 2: Universal Builder Pensions (Government Priority — 2026 onwards)
Government contributes £100/month per builder
BuildROI captures verified earnings for every job, enabling universal pension participation.
Target: 900,000 pension-eligible construction workers.
Cost: £1.08B/year at scale.
PREVENTS £6.66B/year welfare crisis.
ROI for Government: Invest £1,200/year per worker NOW, avoid £9,500/year welfare cost later.
Plus: Workforce Transition Pathway
Experienced builders (55–70) become BuildROI Project Managers, earning while transitioning to retirement and passing knowledge to the next generation.
Retains 500,000 skilled workers who would otherwise be forced out.
10-Year Intervention Program: Time-limited government contribution reviewed on outcomes. Continue if successful, adjust if not. Goal is to reset savings culture, not permanent subsidy.
Primary sources
We combine ONS labour data with GOV.UK pension participation research, IPSE self-employed surveys, and DWP welfare cost projections. BuildROI provides the verified earnings infrastructure that enables universal pension participation for the first time.
Putting it together
Each section above shows a different kind of cost that builds up quietly across the system — from pension gaps to project delays. Together they highlight why BuildROI focuses on structure, not blame: when data and delivery align, savings flow naturally to everyone involved.
Updating the numbers
- Update each input — counts, costs, and rates — with the latest figures from the linked public sources.
- Recheck the baselines using the same simple formulas shown above. Stay on the cautious side where ranges exist.
- Only adjust the “working estimate” where a cited report gives clear new evidence.
- Record each update with the date, who made it, and what changed — keeping earlier versions on file for reference.
Method in one line: public baselines from ONS and GOV.UK, cross-checked with regulator and Parliament evidence (NAO, Ofgem, PARL/DESNZ), plus small, well-sourced adjustments where real-world inefficiencies are proven.